Bitcoin whales who’ve held for years are barely moving their coins right now. On-chain data shows OG holder spending has dropped to its lowest level in 19 months, and one analyst’s halving-cycle model suggests September could mark the next major market bottom.
The pattern isn’t hard to spot. After each halving, long-term holders tend to sell into strength during the run-up, then go quiet as the market cools. This time looks no different — coins that haven’t moved in years are staying put, which historically signals that big players think current prices aren’t worth cashing out.
The halving model in question tracks the typical post-halving accumulation window and projects a cycle bottom around September 2026. If that holds, it would line up with previous cycles where the deepest dips came roughly 12 to 18 months after the reward cut.
Of course, models aren’t guarantees. Macro shocks or a sudden wave of liquidations could shift the timeline. But the on-chain signal is clear: the hands that matter aren’t selling yet.
