The odds of the US passing the Clarity Act just shot up to 55% on Polymarket. A few days ago they were below 40%.
What changed? Law enforcement endorsements.
The National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives (NOBLE) became the first major police organization to back the bill. They made it clear the legislation “does not alter the longstanding federal criminal authorities that investigators and prosecutors rely upon every day.” That mattered. Shortly after, the Major County Sheriffs of America switched to neutral.
This thing was losing steam. Now it’s got momentum again.
But time is tight. The bill hasn’t reached a full Senate floor vote yet. August recess is coming. Expectations for a pre-July 4 vote didn’t pan out — internal disagreements and competing priorities got in the way.
The next window opens July 13 when lawmakers return. Final text should drop soon.
Industry lobbying is intense. Over 200 firms — Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken among them — are pushing for a vote. Ripple even rolled a mobile campaign truck around DC. Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that if this window closes, another chance might not come until 2030.
