Bitcoin is showing familiar signs of a bear market bottom. At least, that’s what one closely watched analyst thinks.
The quant account known as Frank on X points to the 200-week simple moving average and a specific quantile that marked reversals at the pit of the 2022 bear market and the March 2020 COVID crash. Price just re-entered that reversal zone. “This is a textbook bitcoin bottom,” Frank wrote. “It’ll be very obvious in hindsight.”
Short-term holders — wallets that have held BTC for up to six months — are also acting differently. Their spent output profit ratio (SOPR) just flipped positive, meaning they’re taking profits on small recoveries. That’s “a characteristic of a bull market,” according to Frank.
But not everyone’s convinced. CryptoQuant contributor Trader Germini warns that STH-SOPR hasn’t hit deep capitulation levels yet — the kind around 0.93 seen in previous local bottoms. “The market has cooled down,” he said, “but it has not shown a strong short-term holder capitulation signal.”
So maybe the bottom is in. Or maybe there’s one more flush left. Either way, the signals are piling up.
