Bitcoin hit $63,900 on Monday. That’s its highest price in two weeks. It’s up 1.7% in the last 24 hours and more than 6% over the last week.
Not bad for an asset that’s fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high last October.
Bernstein analysts are sticking with their $150,000 year-end target. They admit it looks “ambitious” given the market correction. But they’re not backing down.
“Bottom line, any crypto correction is painful, but this one has been rather comforting,” the analysts wrote. “Crypto feels like it’s growing up.”
The firm is watching regulatory clarity as a potential catalyst. The odds of the Clarity Act passing by year-end sit around 50% on Polymarket. If it passes, Bernstein expects “more market liquidity and institutional adoption for both crypto-native assets and blockchain versions of real-world assets.”
Then there’s Strategy. The largest corporate Bitcoin holder sold $216 million in BTC last week to fund dividends. That spooked the market. But Bernstein says Strategy still has about 17 months of USD reserve coverage for dividend and interest expenses. They don’t expect forced selling. “It looks unlikely any major Bitcoin forced supply could come from Strategy,” Bernstein said. The firm expects Strategy to stay a net buyer.
To hit $150,000 by year-end, Bitcoin needs to jump nearly 135% from current levels. That’s a big ask. But Bernstein isn’t the only firm watching the flows for signs of life.
Bitcoin’s had a rough eight months — all gains since Trump’s reelection have been wiped out and then some. But the bulls are still here. And they’re still betting on a comeback.
