Bitcoin options expiring July 8 are leaning heavy on calls. Traders are betting on higher prices — and the expiry lands on the same day the Fed releases its June meeting minutes.
Call volume hit 6,258 contracts over 24 hours on Deribit, versus 3,610 puts. That’s a put-call ratio of 0.58 — firmly bullish. Open interest tells the same story: 370 calls vs 257 puts.
Granted, this is a small expiry. Only about 628 contracts worth $39.3 million notional. That’s a fraction of the late-June monthly settlement that cleared billions. The signal here is the positioning, not the size.
The heaviest call bets cluster around the $69,000 strike — well above spot. Put open interest sits between $58,000 and $62,000. Less downside hedging than you’d expect.
Max pain sits at $63,000, a level Bitcoin has struggled to hold since late June. The theory says price drifts toward that strike where most options expire worthless. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a gravitational pull.
The wild card is the FOMC minutes. The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% — the fourth straight hold. Nine of 18 officials projected a rate hike later this year. New Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his debut, sending Bitcoin and gold lower on June 17.
Glassnode reads the options market as unusually calm. Less demand for downside protection could mean optimism is creeping back. But light hedging works both ways — any surprise in the minutes could move price hard and fast.
