Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio just hit -0.35, the lowest in 43 months. CryptoQuant says that number historically lines up with market bottoms.
The last time it fell this low was December 2022, right after FTX imploded and BTC dropped below $16,000. CryptoQuant notes that in both 2015 and 2019, the same ratio dipped below -0.35 before prices recovered.
The data comes as sentiment’s been hovering near record lows during Bitcoin’s 50% slide from its $126,080 peak last October. BTC is up about 7% since hitting $58,190 on June 25, its lowest point in nearly two years.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan blamed that drop on Strategy’s Stretch (STRC) preferred stock breaking below its $75 par value, which spooked the market about the company’s dividend model. But Hougan thinks the sell-off squeezed out excess leverage.
“I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever,” he said. “We’ll enter a new bull market in the fall.”
Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston points out BTC is trading just 16% above its realized price — the aggregate on-chain cost basis. At similar levels in the past, six-month returns averaged 41% and 12-month returns hit 81%.
Livingston’s take? Buying right now “feels awful.” But that’s exactly why it’s cheap.
“Waiting for ‘the bottom’ is a wonderful plan with one flaw,” he said. “The bottom never announces itself.”
