Bitcoin just flashed a buy signal it hasn’t shown since the last bear market bottom in November 2022. But analysts aren’t popping champagne just yet.
The Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio — a metric tracking whether BTC’s supply last moved in profit or loss — has dipped into negative territory and rebounded, triggering a “buy” reading for the first time in nearly four years.
CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. confirmed the signal in a Friday blog post. “This is the first buy trigger since November 2022, which was the bottom of the previous bear cycle,” he wrote.
Here’s the catch. The UTXO Supply Ratio cue doesn’t mean a macro bottom has arrived — it just tends to appear “near cyclical lows.” Confirmation requires the ratio holding above zero alongside rising prices. If it slips back into negative territory without price support? That’s the bearish scenario.
The missing piece right now is demand. Supply held at a loss hasn’t hit the levels seen in previous bear markets. Adler predicts the 90-day SMA of supply in loss should reach its bear-market reversal target within two months. Until then, it’s better to treat capitulation as a process rather than a done deal.
Fellow CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost echoed the cautious tone. “This won’t stop BTC from going lower, but we now have several signals pointing to seller exhaustion,” he said. “The next step is a renewal of demand, and that could take some time.”
BTC price expectations still point to a potential Q3 bottom near $50K. Several signals now suggest the end of this bear market could be approaching — but that doesn’t mean it’s here yet.
