Bitcoin’s sitting above $61,000 after disappointing jobs data rattled the markets. The US added just 57,000 jobs in June — way below the 113,000 analysts expected. And if that wasn’t enough, the Labor Department revised April and May down by another 74,000.
The reaction was predictable. Rate hike odds for September dropped from 64% to 54%. Money started flowing out of overheated AI stocks and into harder assets. Gold perked up. Bitcoin climbed off its $57,750 low.
Onchain numbers tell a similar story. The realized profit-to-loss ratio just hit its lowest mark since 2022. That’s the kind of signal that’s historically called cycle bottoms with decent accuracy, according to CryptoQuant analyst gaah_im. When the percentage of supply in profit goes negative, it usually means sellers are exhausted.
AI stocks took a beating. SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital — all down 9% or more in a single day. Some of that capital has to go somewhere. Bitcoin and gold are natural landing spots.
Oil prices aren’t helping the inflation narrative either. WTI crude stabilized below $70 after progress in US-Iran talks. That gives central banks more room to pump liquidity. The Fed’s balance sheet has been stuck at $6.73 trillion, but it’s authorized to buy $40 billion in Treasuries every month. Weak employment + low oil = easier money.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) caused some turbulence with its STRC dilution, but analysts see that as end-of-cycle deleveraging — not a structural problem. The company still has $56.8 billion in enterprise value and healthy leverage.
If AI weakness accelerates and rate cuts stay on the table, $70,000 isn’t out of reach.
