Bitcoin just hit a TD9 downtrend setup on the monthly chart for the first time since July 2022. That’s not a buy signal on its own, but it’s the kind of thing traders pay attention to.
The TD9 indicator — a riff on the Tom DeMark Sequential timing tool — fires when nine consecutive monthly candles close lower than the close four candles prior. Analyst Tony Severino flagged the pattern on X, calling it a “perfected” buy setup on monthly timeframes.
Back in 2022, the same signal appeared in July. BTC spent another five months grinding out its bottom before the real recovery kicked in. So no, this doesn’t mean the bottom is definitely in. But it does mark an inflection zone worth watching.
“TD 9s are where you stop chasing fear, zoom out, and ask: Is this where BTC reminds everyone what happens when they think it’s dead?” wrote Tony Carrera, host of the Proof of Pain podcast.
Meanwhile, RSI divergences across multiple timeframes are stacking up. Trader Scott Melker said he’s not sure he’s ever seen this many confirmed bullish divergences at once. “Divs building over multiple time frames is my favorite signal. Good odds,” he told his followers.
Not everyone’s convinced new lows are off the table. Many still expect BTC to tag $55,000 or so before the bear market fully reverses. But the TD9 setup alongside those RSI divergences makes a compelling case that the macro bottom could be forming.
Bottom line: nobody’s ringing a bell here. But the signals that preceded the last two bear-market bottoms are lighting up again.
