Oil climbed back above $70 a barrel on Monday after a weekend of US-Iran military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz rattled energy markets. Both sides say they’re standing down. The markets aren’t buying it yet.
West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.3% to $70.17. Brent hit $73.21. Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest since late February just days before the latest escalation began.
It started on June 25, when Iran’s IRGC drone-struck the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely near the Omani coast. The US retaliated on June 26 with strikes on Iranian military sites. Iran hit US forces in Bahrain with drones on June 27. The US struck again that same day. By June 28, Iran had targeted US positions in both Bahrain and Kuwait.
President Trump took to Truth Social with a blunt warning: if forced into more military action, “the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist.”
Behind the scenes, a US official told Reuters that both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely. Technical talks are set for Doha on Tuesday. But Iran’s Foreign Minister pushed back, insisting Tehran alone controls Hormuz traffic.
Shipping data tells its own story. Only 48 vessels transited Hormuz between June 26 and 28, down from 70 the Wednesday before the escalation. Tuesday’s Doha session will test whether diplomacy can actually de-escalate things.
