Nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks now carry a Buy rating from Wall Street analysts — the highest on record. FactSet data puts the figure at 59.4% for June. Hold ratings sit at 35.7%, while Sell calls make up just 4.9%, below their five-year average.
Record optimism, though, isn’t necessarily a green light. Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, framed it as a caution: when everyone expects good news, there’s less room for upside surprises.
What’s driving the optimism? A major factor is the US-Iran ceasefire. Both sides agreed to halt all kinetic activity and will meet Tuesday in Doha to negotiate further. The deal extends a stop-start truce that began with a June 18 framework — one that collapsed into fresh strikes just days later. The setup remains fragile, with Trump threatening to “complete the job” and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issuing fresh Strait of Hormuz warnings.
For crypto, the stakes run through that strait. About 20 million barrels of oil cross it daily. Each flare-up has battered crypto prices — a June 3 drop below $66,000 triggered $1.84 billion in liquidations. Bitcoin sat near $59,633 on Monday, down 6% on the week despite the truce.
Stocks and crypto have diverged. Equities hold near highs while Bitcoin slumps. Bank of America has long categorized Bitcoin as a risk asset, not an inflation hedge. Its correlation with stocks works both ways.
The real question isn’t whether analysts are bullish — they clearly are. It’s whether Tuesday’s talks hold. If they don’t, that record Buy percentage won’t offer much protection.
