Michael Saylor posted a chart of Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves on X this weekend with the caption “We’re gonna need more charts.” Some investors read it as a signal of fresh purchases. The company’s own rules say otherwise.
Strategy holds 847,363 BTC, purchased at an average price of $75,653 per coin. With Bitcoin hovering around $60,000, that’s an unrealized loss exceeding $13 billion. The company’s market cap has fallen to $29 billion — 43% below the value of the Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
Here’s the problem. Strategy can only issue new shares to buy crypto when its market cap exceeds the value of its Bitcoin reserves by at least 22%. That ratio, called mNAV, currently sits at 0.99x. Issuing shares now would just dilute existing investors. Management is bound by its own rules to stop buying.
Cash is tight too. Preferred shares STRC have collapsed to $74.57, well below par. The company has $1.4 billion in cash against $1.2 billion in annual obligations — enough for roughly 14 months of dividend payments.
Wall Street wants action. Grayscale’s head of research says Strategy should sell at least $3 billion in Bitcoin to cover short-term debt. Ripple’s CEO has been more blunt, saying Saylor’s debt schemes harm the market.
Saylor insists there’s no liquidation risk as long as Bitcoin stays above $8,000. But the technical picture isn’t kind — major resistance sits at $67,098 and $75,682.
Those new charts? They’ll mostly show a shrinking dollar reserve and growing debt.
