Just three weeks ago, Galaxy Digital’s research arm gave the CLARITY Act a 60% chance of becoming law this year. Now that number has been slashed to 50-50, and the reason isn’t politics — it’s the calendar.
Galaxy researcher Alex Thorn published the downgrade on Friday, pointing to a Senate floor schedule that’s getting tighter by the week. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee back in May with a solid 15-9 bipartisan vote and has sat as item No. 423 on the Legislative Calendar ever since. No floor date. No motion to proceed. Nothing.
The CLARITY Act — short for the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act — is the most ambitious attempt yet by Congress to build a comprehensive framework for digital assets. It draws lines between the SEC and CFTC, sets standards for when a token is a commodity versus a security, and includes protections for blockchain developers and node operators through the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
So what’s the holdup? For a bill that needs 60 votes to clear a filibuster, time is running out. August recess hits at the end of July. Between now and then, committees need to merge their texts, file a motion to proceed, hold floor debate, and run an amendment process. Then the House has to act on whatever the Senate produces.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune needs to announce floor time by early July at the latest. Miss that window and the bill slips into September — right into midterm election season, where nobody wants to touch controversial votes.
There are also unresolved policy fights. A Van Hollen conflict-of-interest amendment failed 11-13 in committee, and Senators Gallego and Booker are making ethics conditions a firm requirement for their support. At least two Republican senators — Hawley and Paul — are expected no votes, so Democratic crossover support isn’t optional.
Thorn says a public agreement on a combined Banking-Agriculture text, resolution of the ethics disputes, and a floor commitment in the next two weeks could push the odds back above 60%. Continued silence into mid-July would push them lower.
