Bitcoin hit its lowest price in 21 months earlier this week, and prediction market traders don’t think the selling is done yet. On Myriad, odds of BTC dropping to $55,000 before any rebound sit at 77%, while ETH falling to $1,500 is priced at 88%.
The bearishness has accelerated over the past month. Odds of Bitcoin dumping to $55,000 jumped 44% on Myriad during that stretch. BTC is now down about 23% over the last month of trading, while Ethereum has plunged more than 25% in 30 days.
Much of the near-term direction may hinge on Strategy and its STRC preferred shares. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan put it bluntly: “STRC is the tail wagging the Bitcoin dog.” The preferred shares recently hit an all-time low of $73.62, and the market can’t stop watching it trade in the $70s.
Strategy’s cash reserve has dropped 38% since the start of 2026, and dividend coverage has shrunk from seven years to just 14 months. Analysts at JPMorgan and CryptoQuant have argued the firm needs to rebuild its cash position fast. CryptoQuant went further, saying Strategy should stop buying Bitcoin immediately.
Bitcoin is now nearly 53% off its all-time high of $126,080. ETH is more than 68% below its peak of $4,946. If the prediction markets are right, there’s still more pain ahead.
