Fidelity Digital Assets is challenging a common criticism that Bitcoin’s long-term security will weaken as mining rewards shrink. In a new report, research analyst Daniel Gray argues that the network’s economic incentives stay strong even after each halving cuts the block subsidy in half.
Since April 2024, miners receive 3.125 BTC per block, down from 6.25 BTC in the previous cycle. But Gray points out that rising Bitcoin prices have more than compensated. Average daily miner revenue has climbed from roughly $26,300 during Bitcoin’s first halving cycle to over $40.2 million today.
“Despite declining issuance, miner incentives — and by extension, network security — historically strengthened alongside Bitcoin’s price,” Gray wrote. The report also highlights that transaction fees and market forces continue to make sustained attacks prohibitively expensive.
Still, publicly traded miners face real near-term pressure. Some have started diversifying into AI and high-performance computing to leverage existing infrastructure. VanEck estimates miners could need up to $50 billion in extra capital to fully transition to AI workloads.
The debate over whether transaction fees alone can sustain network security once block subsidies disappear remains unresolved. For now, Fidelity’s research suggests the incentive structure holds — but it’s a question that will only grow more pressing as the next halving approaches.
