Asset manager 21shares has scaled back several of its bullish price forecasts for crypto this year. The reasoning? Industry infrastructure is growing faster than prices are, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Their midyear outlook points to real progress: ETFs are launching steadily, stablecoin regulation is maturing, tokenization is gaining traction, and prediction markets are exploding. But weaker prices, several high-profile DeFi exploits, and slower-than-expected enterprise adoption mean some of their original 2026 targets are now out of reach.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains the backbone of the market. After peaking around $126,000 in October 2025, BTC has followed its typical post-halving pullback pattern. 21shares argues that institutional ownership has softened the drawdowns but hasn’t fundamentally changed the cycle itself.
Former 21shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, who left after the firm’s acquisition by FalconX last year, made a similar observation on Substack: the investor base is larger, more institutionally rooted, and more tightly coupled to traditional finance. That means geopolitical events and macro shifts have an outsized impact on crypto prices compared to years past.
On specific sectors, prediction markets are the standout. 21shares projects annual trading volume will surpass $100 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, crypto treasury companies are starting to diverge — smaller players trading below their asset values hinting at coming consolidation.
Even with net outflows of roughly $3 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs this year, holdings sit just above 1.25 million BTC, near all-time highs. Many investors are clearly holding through the dip. The SEC’s generic listing standards are also helping convert a backlog of ETF applications into actual product launches beyond just Bitcoin and Ether.
