Cboe Global Markets has jumped into prediction markets, launching a new platform called Cboe Predicts with binary contracts tied to the S&P 500 index.
The contracts let traders take “yes” or “no” positions on whether the S&P 500 will close above or below a set price level. They’re available now through Interactive Brokers, with Charles Schwab and other retail brokerages expected to offer them in the coming months.
Cboe is the latest traditional finance firm to move into outcome-based contracts, following growing investor demand. The contracts are security options that trade within the same regulatory framework as US-listed options, which Cboe says provides “institutional-grade liquidity” and transparency.
It’s not without regulatory friction, though. Kentucky recently sued five prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of operating unlicensed gambling platforms. And US lawmakers proposed legislation in January to restrict political prediction market trading by government officials after a Polymarket user made over $400,000 on a contract tied to Venezuelan politics.
Similar S&P 500 daily closing price contracts are already available on Polymarket and Kalshi.
