Bitcoin is trading around $62,000, but according to one analyst, that doesn’t mean the cycle is broken — it’s just compressed. Analyst David Eng says BTC price action still follows its four-year adoption trend line, which currently suggests a fair value of about $76,400.
“BTC is not broken,” Eng concluded. “It is compressed below its adoption structure.” He points to two key technical levels: the 400-day simple moving average, which has acted as support throughout this cycle, and the four-year trend line that filters out shorter-term noise.
Bitcoin has been stretching away from its adoption structure and then reverting back toward it — a pattern consistent with prior cycles. The current 20% discount to the four-year trend mirrors behavior seen in previous bear markets.
Trader Rekt Capital estimates the current bear market is about 71% complete. He’s watching the 50-month exponential moving average, currently at $63,900. If June closes near $62,000, that confirms a breakdown from the 50-month EMA. A green July could turn that level into resistance, but August might cancel out any recovery and push BTC lower.
For now, the structural case for Bitcoin intact. The cycles haven’t broken — they’ve just compressed.
