The odds of the CLARITY Act passing have fallen to a record low on prediction markets as the release of the revised Senate text faces delays. Polymarket odds briefly touched 31 percent before recovering to around 35 percent, compared with a 73 percent probability during May when optimism was at its peak.
The declining odds reflect the growing challenges facing the crypto market structure bill, which has been stalled by disagreements over ethics provisions. A White House meeting between President Trump and senators failed to resolve the impasse, pushing the release of the revised text to next week.
Senate Democrats are pushing for stronger conflict-of-interest rules that would prevent the president and senior administration officials from profiting off crypto-related policy decisions. The Trump family extensive involvement in cryptocurrency ventures has made this a particularly contentious issue.
The delay has frustrated industry advocates who view the CLARITY Act as essential for providing regulatory clarity to the U.S. crypto market. Without the bill, companies face continued uncertainty about whether digital assets fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction.
With the August recess approaching, the window for passage is narrowing. If the bill does not advance before the recess, it would need to restart the legislative process in the fall, further reducing the likelihood of passage.
The narrow odds on Polymarket reflect the uncertainty surrounding the bill prospects. Traders are pricing in the possibility that the ethics issues may ultimately be resolved, but the probability has shifted meaningfully lower as delays mount.
This article was adapted from Blockonomi. Read the original here.
