Prediction market traders on Kalshi are increasingly betting that Stellar (XLM) will outperform XRP by the end of 2026, reflecting a notable shift in sentiment toward the smaller-cap token. The contracts, which settle on which asset posts a higher year-end price relative to its current level, currently favor XLM at odds that suggest market participants see stronger relative upside for the Stellar network token.
The sentiment gap highlights a diverging narrative for two assets that share similar origins. Both XRP and XLM were created by Jed McCaleb, with XLM emerging as a fork of the Stellar Consensus Protocol after McCaleb left Ripple. While XRP has dominated institutional attention through Ripple’s cross-border payment network and its high-profile legal battle with the SEC, Stellar has quietly built infrastructure focused on tokenization and emerging market payments.
In recent months, Stellar has seen a series of positive developments. The network added payments giant MoneyGram as a tier 1 validator, strengthening its credibility in the traditional finance sector. Tradable’s $1 billion deal to use Stellar for institutional tokenization also bolstered the network’s profile among enterprise users.
XLM has been trading around the $0.045 level, well below its all-time high of $0.88. Technical indicators recently confirmed a golden cross on XLM daily charts, though volume has not yet followed to confirm a sustained breakout. Analysts note that XLM faces significant resistance near $0.055, a level it must reclaim to validate the bullish thesis.
XRP, meanwhile, has struggled to maintain momentum despite a series of positive regulatory developments, including Ripple’s MiCA compliance listing in the EU and growing adoption of the XRP Ledger for tokenization pilots. The asset has traded in a narrow range near $1.09, unable to break higher even as the broader crypto market showed signs of recovery.
Industry observers note that the Kalshi betting data reflects trader perception rather than fundamental valuation. XRP still commands a market capitalization roughly 10 times that of XLM, and its institutional adoption pipeline remains more developed. However, the prediction market trend suggests growing conviction that Stellar’s lighter regulatory baggage and focused emerging-market strategy may give it an edge in the current environment.
This article was adapted from U.Today. Read the original here.
