Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has published a memo projecting that Bitcoin could reach a cycle bottom near $44,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026, aligning with earlier projections from multiple market research sources.
Cowen’s analysis draws on historical Bitcoin cycle patterns and macroeconomic indicators. He notes that Bitcoin typically experiences its deepest drawdowns approximately 12 to 18 months after reaching all-time highs, a timeline that points to a potential bottom later this year.
The $44,000 target represents a decline of approximately 65 percent from Bitcoin’s all-time high of around $126,000, a drawdown consistent with previous bear market cycles. Bitcoin fell roughly 77 percent from peak to trough during the 2021-2022 cycle and approximately 84 percent during the 2017-2018 cycle.
Cowen’s projection is based on multiple on-chain and technical indicators, including the MVRV ratio, realized price, and Pi Cycle Top indicator. He suggests that while the near-term outlook remains challenging, the risk-reward ratio for long-term holders improves significantly as prices approach these lower levels.
The analyst also noted that macroeconomic conditions could accelerate or delay the timing of the bottom. A more aggressive Federal Reserve easing cycle could provide a catalyst for an earlier recovery, while persistent inflation could extend the downturn.
Bitcoin is currently trading well above the projected bottom level, but the analysis suggests further downside risk remains in the near term.
This article was adapted from BeInCrypto. Read the original here.
