Bitcoin’s supply in loss has exceeded 50%, triggering a historically reliable countdown pattern that has previously signaled bear market bottoms. With roughly 50 days elapsed since that threshold was crossed, analysts are watching closely for signs that the current downtrend may be approaching its final phase.
The metric measures the percentage of Bitcoin’s circulating supply that was acquired at prices higher than the current market value. When more than half of all coins are underwater, historical data suggests that the market is nearing a capitulation event that often precedes a sustained recovery.
Previous instances of the supply-in-loss indicator crossing 50% occurred during the 2018–2019 bear market and the 2022 downturn following the FTX collapse. In both cases, Bitcoin’s price bottomed out within 50 to 70 days of the signal, followed by a multi-month recovery.
The current cycle has played out similarly, with the 50-day mark approaching. Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $58,000 and $65,000 for several weeks, with repeated tests of lower support levels. The extended period of low volatility and declining participation has many traders drawing comparisons to previous accumulation phases.
While the countdown pattern has historical precedent, analysts caution that no single indicator can predict exact market bottoms. The current macroeconomic environment, including elevated interest rates and geopolitical tensions, differs from previous cycles. However, the supply-in-loss data provides a useful framework for understanding where the market might be in the broader cycle.
This article was adapted from Cointelegraph. Read the original here.
