Bitcoin climbed back above $63,000 on Thursday. But traders aren’t celebrating just yet.
Tomorrow brings a $1.4 billion options expiry on Deribit, and there are some worrying signals under the hood. The biggest one: US 10-year Treasury yields are creeping toward 4.6%, a level that historically rattles risk assets. Investors are nervous about government debt expansion and what it means for monetary policy.
Bitcoin has been trading sideways, while the Nasdaq-100 sits just 4% below its all-time high. The AI sector’s momentum keeps pulling capital into equities — chipmakers like SK Hynix, Arm Holdings, and AMD all posted strong gains Thursday.
But here’s the thing about the options picture. Put-to-call volumes have stayed balanced. That’s not typical before a big expiry. It suggests limited appetite for a sharp downside move.
The setup is fairly tight. Calls up to $62,500 total $137 million. Puts above $61,000 sit at $121 million. If Bitcoin pushes above $63,500 by Friday’s 8:00 AM UTC cut-off, bulls gain a $190 million advantage. Bears hold a smaller edge below $61,000 — roughly $100 million.
Wednesday saw $85 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, ending a three-day inflow streak. Not a disaster, but not encouraging either.
The macro side could swing things. A temporary Middle East truce might ease recession fears and push money back into risk assets. But if oil prices keep climbing and Treasury yields stay elevated, Bitcoin’s path looks limited.
Bottom line: $62,000 is the level to watch. If it holds through expiry, that’s a positive signal. But sustained upward momentum needs help from the macro environment — and that’s not guaranteed right now.
