Bitcoin took a hit Monday morning. Dropped from nearly $64K to about $62K. The trigger? A SEC filing showing Strategy sold 3,588 BTC — its biggest sale ever — to fund dividend payments. Simple story, right?
Not quite. The real action was in the futures market.
Sunday’s rally toward $64K was almost entirely futures-driven. Net futures buying hit roughly $415 million for the day, with one four-hour burst of $687 million that liquidated about $33 million in short positions. Spot flows were actually slightly negative over the same period. That gap matters. A rally with no cash buyers behind it is sitting on borrowed time.
Monday morning delivered that unwind. And Strategy’s filing made it worse. With $1.25 billion of sale capacity still unused, the market had to price in more potential selling.
Bitcoin futures flows swung to $456 million of net selling in a single four-hour window. Liquidations hit both sides — $42 million in longs, $49 million in shorts. But then something interesting happened. The Monday afternoon recovery looked different. About $568 million in futures buying was joined by $143 million in actual spot buying. For the first time in days, real money showed up.
Bitcoin’s funding rate held positive for over a week, even through the slide. Open interest sits at $20.6 billion. The market’s leveraged optimism is still there — but fragile.
Two things to watch: Is Strategy’s sale the start of a longer selling phase? And will that unused $1.25 billion authorization hang over any rally?
The Fed releases its June meeting minutes Wednesday. Markets are pricing a 75.6% chance rates stay at 3.50%-3.75% in July. Any hawkish tone could test those crowded long positions. Pressure zones sit at $62,300-$62,800 above and $61,000 and $59,500 below.
Bulls bought the dip. But this setup isn’t exactly rock solid.
