Bitcoin took a hit when Strategy announced it was selling BTC. The price dropped to $61,300. But the rebound was quick — within hours, BTC was back above $63K.
What happened? Strategy’s sale added $216 million in cash to its balance sheet. That eased worries about the company’s ability to pay dividends and cover debt. The market decided that was a net positive.
Bitcoin perpetual futures tell an interesting story. The annualized funding rate jumped to 9% on Monday. That’s a sign demand between bulls and bears is balanced. Not exactly conviction territory, but a clear step up from Saturday’s negative funding rates.
Options markets look a bit different. The put-to-call ratio at Deribit tilted bearish on Monday, reversing the trend from late last week. Still, at 1.15, it’s well within the neutral range. It takes a reading above 2x before anyone starts panicking.
ETF flows flipped positive on Friday — $223 million in net inflows after 10 straight days of outflows. That was the first green light in a while. June saw record $4.51 billion in net outflows, so the reversal matters.
Long-term holders aren’t panicking either. Transfers from long-term wallets to exchanges dropped to 4,130 BTC per day on average, down from 8,040 BTC a week earlier. That’s sellers exhaustion, plain and simple. It strengthens the $60K support level.
Strategy’s preferred equity (STRC) has been under pressure too. The company holds enough cash to cover 17 months of dividends, so more Bitcoin sales aren’t urgent. But with $8 billion in unrealized losses on its BTC purchases, bears still have arguments on their side.
The bottom line? Bitcoin derivatives look resilient. But unless spot ETFs string together a sequence of solid inflows, traders will stay skeptical. A sustained rally above $65K isn’t likely until that changes.
