Polymarket blocks US users from its global platform. It doesn’t seem to matter. New research from blockchain analytics firm Allium shows Americans are the single biggest group of political bettors on the platform by both contracts traded and wallet count.
“Blocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume,” Allium said. “The demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight.”
Polymarket settled with the CFTC in 2022 for $1.4 million and agreed to restrict US access. But people are getting around it — using VPNs, moving funds through offshore wallets, and trading anyway. A separate study by Rutgers statistician Harry Crane estimated 30% of Polymarket’s trading volume comes from the US, between $10.6 and $26.7 billion over the past year.
Allium found US users are more interested in conflict-related markets than the rest of the platform’s users. Five of the top 12 US markets by volume relate to the Iran war. Election markets? Americans mostly skip those — they’re already available on Kalshi and Polymarket US.
Polymarket is now blocked entirely in 34 countries. Spain joined the list most recently. Four more countries are in “close only” mode — existing positions can be closed but no new trades opened.
