Bitcoin just had its worst June since 2022 — down 20.5% to close the month at $58,526. And one well-known analyst thinks the pain isn’t over yet.
PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, says BTC could drop to $52,000. That’d be about 60% below the all-time high of $126,000 from October. For context: the 2018 bear market saw an 83% crash. 2022 brought 76%. So a 60% drawdown would actually be shallower.
The worrying signal? Bitcoin closed June below its 200-week moving average ($62,000) but above its realized price ($52,000). PlanB notes that every previous bear market bottom happened below realized price, not above it.
“Right now, price is much lower than value and indeed might go lower from here,” he said.
Andri Fauzan Adziima from Bitrue Research Institute agrees. He’s watching for a late-2026 capitulation before the next leg up, though he thinks institutions might make this cycle’s bottom less deep.
Bitcoin’s realized price — the average cost at which everyone who holds BTC acquired their coins — sits at $52,000. That’s a key support level during bear markets. Lacie Zhang from Bitget Wallet sees strong support forming around $55,000 if things get worse.
Here’s another angle. Benjamin Cowen points out that US midterm election years have historically coincided with bear market bottoms — 2018 and 2022 both hit cycle lows during midterm years. This year’s midterms are November 3rd.
So the playbook is familiar. Bitcoin looks undervalued on metrics, but that doesn’t mean it can’t keep falling. The question is how much lower before the cycle turns.
