Galaxy Digital just threw cold water on the crypto industry’s biggest legislative hope. The firm’s head of research, Alex Thorn, cut the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50% — down from 75% just last month.
Why the downgrade? It’s not about the bill’s content. It’s about time. The Senate calendar is packed, and lawmakers are running out of floor sessions before the August recess kicks off on August 8. There’s no unified text between the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees yet, and no firm schedule for a floor vote.
Then there’s the SAVE Act. President Trump’s sudden decision to block the bipartisan housing bill until Congress passes a proof-of-citizenship elections bill injected another leadership-consuming fight into an already crowded queue. That fight competes for the same limited floor time the CLARITY Act needs.
Other must-pass legislation is crowding the calendar too — Section 702 of FISA and the 2027 NDAA are both unfinished. The runway is shrinking fast.
The bill did clear the Senate Banking Committee in May, and over 200 crypto companies signed a letter urging passage. But opposition is real: Democrats and banking groups argue the bill lets crypto firms offer stablecoin yields without the same oversight traditional finance faces. Law enforcement and Catholic organizations also raised concerns about oversight gaps for illicit activity.
The House hearing is set for July 17. After that, it’s a race against the calendar.
