Bitcoin’s unspent transaction output (UTXO) profit-to-loss ratio has dropped to its level this bear market cycle, and onchain analysts say it’s flashing a signal that’s historically marked the bottom.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out on Saturday that the ratio of UTXOs spent in profit versus at a loss is now at a multi-cycle low. This is the first time the signal has triggered since the correction began, and past dips this deep have coincided with bear market troughs — most recently in mid-2023 when BTC bottomed near $26,000.
“These periods have always been profitable for long-term investors,” Darkfost said. “They correspond to the moment when the majority gives up and loses interest.” He cautioned that it’s a slow process, though. Capitulation doesn’t happen overnight.
Another analyst, DurdenBTC, echoed the reading: “The bottom signal I’ve been waiting for just fired. It’s caught every cycle low since 2016, and it will still feel terrible for weeks.” His point — if buying here felt comfortable, the signal wouldn’t exist.
Swissblock, an onchain analytics firm, noted that price is stabilizing but momentum remains “deeply negative,” with Bitcoin’s impulse only just returning to neutral. They described the current phase as base formation.
On the macro side, selling pressure could pick up. The US military resumed strikes on Iranian targets over the weekend, hitting 10 sites near the Strait of Hormuz. BTC briefly dipped to $59,800 in early Sunday trading before recovering above $60,100.
The data paints a mixed but familiar picture: onchain metrics suggest long-term accumulation territory, while short-term geopolitical uncertainty and exchange inflows are still weighing on price. If history is a guide, this is the不舒服 zone where bottoms get forged.
